The Democrats are likely to keep their majority in the Senate
Explore the findings of our model of the race to control Congress
Last updated September 25th 2022
Simulated Senate seats won
Each day, we run 10,000 simulated elections based on polling, demographics, fundraising and historical results. These statistics reflect the outcomes of those simulated elections.
2020 Senate results
in 19 out of 100 simulations
in 81 out of 100 simulations
|Predicted to win 45–52 seats||Predicted to win 48–55 seats|
*The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats
Predicted range covers 95% of simulations
Chance of winning by race
Each state has two senators, but only a third of Senate seats are up for election in any year. Republicans currently hold most of this year’s seats, giving the Democrats an advantage. Still, to keep the majority Democrats must hang on to seats in places like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, or pick up seats in states such as Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
99+ in 100
85–99 in 100
65–85 in 100
<65 in 100
Not up for election
Party change likely
Senate forecasts over time
The Democrats face strong headwinds in trying to keep control of the Senate. The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. Pessimism about the economy will not help them either. However, in key races Republicans have nominated potentially unelectable fringe candidates. Moreover, the Supreme Court’s decision to permit tighter abortion restrictions has energised Democratic voters.
Chance of winning a majority
Forecast number of seats
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Centre; The Economist